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Energy
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Uncertainty-embedded dynamic life cycle sustainability assessment framework: An ex-ante perspective on the impacts of alternative vehicle options

Authors: Omer Tatari; Murat Kucukvar; Nuri Cihat Onat; Nuri Cihat Onat;

Uncertainty-embedded dynamic life cycle sustainability assessment framework: An ex-ante perspective on the impacts of alternative vehicle options

Abstract

Abstract Alternative vehicle technologies have a great potential to minimize the transportation-related environmental impacts, reduce the reliance of the U.S. on imported petroleum, and increase energy security. However, they introduce new uncertainties related to their environmental, economic, and social impacts and certain challenges for widespread adoption. In this study, a novel method, uncertainty-embedded dynamic life cycle sustainability assessment framework, is developed to address both methodological challenges and uncertainties in transportation sustainability research. The proposed approach provides a more comprehensive, system-based sustainability assessment framework by capturing the dynamic relations among the parameters within the U.S. transportation system as a whole with respect to its environmental, social, and economic impacts. Using multivariate uncertainty analysis, likelihood of the impact reduction potentials of different vehicle types, as well as the behavioral limits of the sustainability potentials of each vehicle type are analyzed. Seven sustainability impact categories are dynamically quantified for four different vehicle types (internal combustion, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles) from 2015 to 2050. Although impacts of electric vehicles have the largest uncertainty, they are expected (90% confidence) to be the best alternative in long-term for reducing human health impacts and air pollution from transportation. While results based on deterministic (average) values indicate that electric vehicles have greater potential of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, plug-in hybrid vehicles have the largest potential according to the results with 90% confidence interval.

Country
United States
Keywords

Sustainable transportation, Electric vehicles, Uncertainty, System dynamics, Policy making, Life cycle sustainability assessment

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    70
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
70
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze