
You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.
You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.
<script type="text/javascript">
<!--
document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>');
document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=undefined&type=result"></script>');
-->
</script>
Global energy model hindcasting

Abstract This paper performs energy model hindcasting which compared the historical energy simulation results with the observations. We used one of the Integrated Assessment Models and simulated global historical energy consumption from 1981 to 2010 associated with exogenous socioeconomic assumptions, as is typically performed for future scenario. The simulation period was chosen with consideration of data availability and structural constancy of the model. Based on comparison with observations, there are three main findings. First, the global aggregated primary energy shows high reproducibility. In terms of energy source specific results, the fitness in electricity, coal, and biomass consumption were high. However, that of crude oil and natural gas is lower than others. This could be due to the price elasticity assumption, implying that the model can be improved with regard to this element. Second, the reproducibility increases as the simulation is close to the base year 2005. Third, although the global aggregated information shows high reproducibility, some disaggregated regions have lower reproducibility. Furthermore, high income countries tend to show higher reproducibility than in low income countries. Given the uncertainties in the ability of IAMs to reproduce certain aspects of the energy system, forecasts must be treated with caution.
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).21 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
