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Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models

handle: 11311/1061131
The industry sector is a major energy consumer and GHG emitter. Effective climate change mitigation strategies will require a significant reduction of industrial emissions. To better understand the variations in the projected industrial pathways for both baseline and mitigation scenarios, we compare key input and structure assumptions used in energy-models in relation to the modeled sectors' mitigation potential. It is shown that although all models show in the short term similar trends in a baseline scenario, where industrial energy demand increases steadily, after 2050 energy demand spans a wide range across the models (between 203 and 451 EJ/yr). In Non-OECD countries, the sectors energy intensity is projected to decline relatively rapidly but in the 2010–2050 period this is offset by economic growth. The ability to switch to alternative fuels to mitigate GHG emissions differs across models with technologically detailed models being less flexible in switching from fossil fuels to electricity. This highlights the importance of understanding economy-wide mitigation responses and costs and is therefore an area for improvements. By looking at the cement sector in more detail, we show that analyzing each industrial sub-sector separately can improve the interpretation and accuracy of outcomes, and provide insights in the feasibility of GHG abatement.
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory United States
- University College London United Kingdom
- University Research Co (United States) United States
- International Research Center on Environment and Development France
- Analysis Group (United States) United States
Integrated Assessment Models, Climate change mitigation, Energy(all), SDG 13 - Climate Action, Industry, SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy, Innovation, Energy models, SDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth, Model comparison, Pollution, General Energy, Energy efficiency, and Infrastructure, SDG 9 - Industry
Integrated Assessment Models, Climate change mitigation, Energy(all), SDG 13 - Climate Action, Industry, SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy, Innovation, Energy models, SDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth, Model comparison, Pollution, General Energy, Energy efficiency, and Infrastructure, SDG 9 - Industry
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