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Energy
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Regional emission pathways, energy transition paths and cost analysis under various effort-sharing approaches for meeting Paris Agreement goals

Authors: Xiaotong Chen; Fang Yang; Shining Zhang; Behnam Zakeri; Xing Chen; Changyi Liu; Fangxin Hou;

Regional emission pathways, energy transition paths and cost analysis under various effort-sharing approaches for meeting Paris Agreement goals

Abstract

Abstract International climate policy debate has been struggling to define an agreeable principle for just distribution of the burdens of reducing greenhouse gases. By the integrated assessment modeling, we investigate climate change mitigation pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement goals under different carbon budget allocation principles, namely, cost-effectiveness, equality, and grandfathering for 11 world regions. The results indicate that regional carbon quotas remain similar under equality and grandfathering principles, except for regions with a high population projection, i.e., Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, or regions with a high level of current emissions, such as North America. Irrespective of the burden-sharing principles, most world regions must reach carbon neutrality before 2070 to meet the 2 °C climate targets. Moreover, carbon emissions reduced by carbon capture and storage applications are found to peak around 2050. In general, the share of fossil fuels in primary energy is larger under the larger carbon quota, which will also increase carbon capture and storage applications in fossil fuels. The average global investment needs for mitigating climate change are the lowest under the cost-effectiveness principle, and the marginal abatement cost is the same for all regions. For each region, as the carbon quota decreases the marginal abatement cost increases, while the energy investment changes independently from the carbon quota. These insights can inform global climate change negotiations and help policymakers formulate timelines for carbon neutrality, energy transition, and technology deployment and investment portfolios.

Country
Austria
Keywords

550, 330

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    18
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
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    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
18
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green