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Regional energy diversity and sovereignty in different 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways

Achieving the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a fast transition of the energy system. This leads to consequences for energy security, which a central element of the energy strategy of many countries. Important dimensions of energy security are energy diversity and energy sovereignty. The main objective of this study is to assess how different strategies and climate objectives affect these dimensions. For this, we developed a set of model-based mitigation scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C and 1.5 °C for 16 world regions. The scenarios differ in the energy transition strategy, focusing either more on intermittent renewables or lifestyle change. We show that energy supply diversity increases in deep mitigation scenarios in practically all regions, especially in India and China. This is due to strong growth of bioenergy and intermittent renewables, together with less fossil fuel use. There is also a substantial decrease in total energy trade in mitigation scenarios with a strong focus on intermittent renewables. Without such a strong focus on renewables, the decrease in oil and coal trade is offset by additional trade in bioenergy. However, more trade in bioenergy leads to a higher diversity in energy exporters.
- Free University of Amsterdam Pure VU Amsterdam Netherlands
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Netherlands
- Ministry of Economic Affairs Taiwan
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Netherlands
- Ministry of Economic Affairs Taiwan
Climate, Energy security, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Scenarios, Modelling and Simulation, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Integrated assessment, SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Civil and Structural Engineering, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Mechanical Engineering, Building and Construction, Pollution, Fuel Technology, General Energy, Energy diversity, Energy trade
Climate, Energy security, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Scenarios, Modelling and Simulation, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Integrated assessment, SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Civil and Structural Engineering, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Mechanical Engineering, Building and Construction, Pollution, Fuel Technology, General Energy, Energy diversity, Energy trade
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).11 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
