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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Energy Policyarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Energy Policy
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production

Authors: Xu Wang; Jianliang Wang; Lin Zhao; Lianyong Feng; Simon Snowden;

A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production

Abstract

This paper introduces two typical multicyclic models: the Hubbert model and the Generalized Weng model. The model-solving process of the two is expounded, and it provides the basis for an empirical analysis of the world’s conventional oil production. The results for both show that the world’s conventional oil (crude þNGLs) production will reach its peak in 2011 with a production of 30 billion barrels (Gb). In addition, the forecasting effects of these two models, given the same URR are compared, and the intrinsic characteristics of these two models are analyzed. This demonstrates that for specific criteria the multicyclic Generalized Weng model is an improvement on the multicyclic Hubbert model. Finally, based upon the resultant forecast for the world’s conventional oil, some suggestions are proposed for China’s policy makers.

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
54
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%