The quantity of China's private cars has increased dramatically in the past decade, which has become one of the key sources of carbon emission and air pollution in the cities of China. In theory, to improve energy efficiency can reduce carbon emission significantly, but the result may be affected by the rebound effect. This paper utilizes a two-stage Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model to estimate the total CO2 rebound effect for China's private cars during 2001–2012 at the provincial level, then uses a panel data model to analyze its impact factors. The results suggest that, first of all, the CO2 emissions of private cars have the super conservation effect, partial rebound effect and backfire effect among provinces in China. And the direct CO2 rebound effect plays a dominant role in the total CO2 rebound effect in most provinces. Second, the total CO2 rebound effect of private cars among China's provinces presents an overall convergence trend over time. Finally, the household expenditure and the population density have a negative and positive influence on the total CO2 rebound effect for China's private cars, respectively.