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Do energy scenarios pay sufficient attention to the environment? Lessons from the UK to support improved policy outcomes

handle: 10044/1/58332
Scenario development is widely used to support the formation of energy policy, but many energy scenarios consider\ud environmental interactions only in terms of climate change. We suggest that efforts to develop more holistic\ud energy pathways, going beyond post hoc analysis of environmental and social implications, can usefully draw on\ud environmental scenarios. A detailed content analysis of UK energy and environmental scenarios was therefore\ud undertaken, with energy scenarios selected on the basis that they were recent, had a direct link to energy policy,\ud and covered a range of scenario types. The energy scenarios rarely considered societal drivers beyond decarbonisation\ud and focused on quantifiable parameters such as GDP, while the environmental scenarios provided a richer\ud narrative on human behaviour and social change. As socio-economic issues remain fundamental to the success of\ud energy policies, this is a key area which should be better addressed within energy scenarios. The environmental\ud impacts of energy scenarios were rarely considered, but could have a significant bearing on the likelihood of\ud pathway outcomes being realised. Fuller evaluation of the environmental interactions of energy systems is therefore\ud required. Although the analysis focuses on the UK, some international scenarios show similar limitations,\ud suggesting that the conclusions are more widely applicable.
- University College London United Kingdom
- UK Energy Research Centre United Kingdom
- Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom United Kingdom
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory United Kingdom
- UK Energy Research Centre United Kingdom
690, ECL, Energy, POI, Environment, 333, Policy, Scenarios, MAN, MD Multidisciplinary, PLA, UK, SOC
690, ECL, Energy, POI, Environment, 333, Policy, Scenarios, MAN, MD Multidisciplinary, PLA, UK, SOC
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).19 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
