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Electric Power Systems Research
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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A Multivariate Approach to Probabilistic Industrial Load Forecasting

Authors: Bracale, Antonio; Caramia, Pierluigi; De Falco, Pasquale; Hong, Tao;

A Multivariate Approach to Probabilistic Industrial Load Forecasting

Abstract

Abstract Industrial load takes a big portion of the total electricity demand. Skilled probabilistic industrial load forecasts allow for optimally exploiting energy resources, managing the reserves, and market bidding, which are beneficial to transmission and distribution system operators and their industrial customers. Despite its importance, industrial load forecasting has never been a popular subject in the literature. Most existing methods operate on the active power alone, partially or totally neglecting the reactive power. This paper proposes a multivariate approach to probabilistic industrial load forecasting, which addresses active and reactive power simultaneously. The proposed method is based on a two-level procedure, which consists of generating probabilistic forecasts individually for active and reactive power through univariate probabilistic models, and combining these forecasts in a multivariate approach based on a multivariate quantile regression model. The procedure to estimate the parameters of the multivariate quantile regression model is posed in this paper under a linear programming problem, to facilitate the convergence to the optimal solution. The proposed method is validated using actual load data collected at an Italian factory, under comparison with several probabilistic benchmarks. The proposed multivariate method enhances the skill of forecasts by 6% to 13.5%, with respect to univariate benchmarks.

Country
Italy
Keywords

Industrial load forecasting, Multivariate quantile regression, Probabilistic load forecasting, Quantile regression forests, Reactive power forecasting

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    27
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
27
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%