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Pluralistic backcasting: Integrating multiple visions with policy packages for transport climate policy

Traditionally backcasting studies in the field transport are based on a single normative vision (often with clearly stated targets) and alternative pathways are then developed to reach that vision. This paper expands the discussion on the role and importance of backcasting towards using multiple visions as a part of strategic transport planning process. This is done by presenting a method for pluralistic backcasting, which is defined as a process where multiple visions of the future are developed in a participatory, interdisciplinary process using the Delphi method. Further, the pathways to the alternative visions are constructed with a set of policy packages in a collaborative process with key stakeholders. The pluralistic backcasting approach outlined in the paper presents a set of practical tools to support development and implementation of climate strategies and policy programmes for transport. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of backcasting. The approach is tested with a case study of multiple visions of the future on CO2 emissions for transport in Finland up to the year 2050, including the identification of required policy packages to achieve the visions.
- University of Oxford United Kingdom
- University of Oxford United Kingdom
- Natural Resources Institute Finland Finland
- VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Finland
- University of Turku Finland
policy packages, 330, emissions, carbon dioxide, TSU, 320, CO2 emissions, transport, backcasting, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Muut aihealueet
policy packages, 330, emissions, carbon dioxide, TSU, 320, CO2 emissions, transport, backcasting, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Muut aihealueet
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).89 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
