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Heliyon
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC
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Article . 2024
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Do multisource data matter for NGP prediction? Evidence from the G-LSTM model

Authors: Jun Hao; Shufan Shang; Jiaxin Yuan; Jianping Li;

Do multisource data matter for NGP prediction? Evidence from the G-LSTM model

Abstract

Precisely predicting natural gas prices (NGPs) is important because it can provide the necessary decision-making basis for energy scheduling, planning and control. However, NGPs are affected by many factors and exhibit the characteristics of nonlinearity and randomness, which makes accurate predictions challenging. Therefore, in this paper, the information gain of multisource data and the global optimization ability of the gray wolf algorithm are used to build a multifactor-driven NGP hybrid forecasting model to improve the prediction performance. First, the emotional tendency and readability of news text are extracted and calculated by using VADER and textstat tools, respectively. Then the network search index is filtered and integrated by using the correlation coefficient method and the CRITIC method to form alternative variables of multisource data (news and search index). Second, the gray wolf optimization algorithm is used to find and determine the best key parameter group in long short-term memory model. Finally, the spot price of natural gas in Henry Hub from March 1, 2012 to February 28, 2022 is selected as the prediction object, and multi-scenario numerical experiments are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. The ablation experiment results show that the information gain brought by multisource data can effectively improve the prediction effect of NGPs. Furthermore, the proposed model has the best prediction performance in different scenarios and can be regarded as a promising prediction tool.

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Keywords

Multisource data, H1-99, Science (General), Search index, Social sciences (General), News text, Q1-390, Natural gas price forecast, Research Article

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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gold