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International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Analysis and enhanced prediction of the Spanish Electricity Network through Big Data and Machine Learning techniques

Authors: M.C. Pegalajar; L.G.B. Ruiz; M.P. Cuéllar; R. Rueda;

Analysis and enhanced prediction of the Spanish Electricity Network through Big Data and Machine Learning techniques

Abstract

Abstract Electricity demand is shown to steadily increase in the last few years, and it is one of the key aspects of living standards and quantifying welfare effects. However, the irregularity of electricity demand is one of the main problems in this field. Therefore, it is important to accurately anticipate future expenditures in order to optimize energy generation and to avoid unexpected wastes. As a result, we developed Machine Learning models to predict electricity demand. In particular, our study has been performed using data of the Spanish Electricity Network from 2007 to 2019. To this end, we propose the implementation of a set of Machine Learning techniques using various frameworks. In particular, we implemented six different prediction models: Linear Regression, Regression Trees, Gradient Boosting Regression, Random Forests, Multi-layer Perceptron, and three types of recurrent neural networks. Our experimentation shows promising results in all cases, since our models provides better prediction than the one estimated by the Spanish Electricity Network with an improvement of 12% in the worst case and up to 37% for the best predictor, which turned out to be the Gated Recurrent Unit neural network.

Country
Spain
Related Organizations
Keywords

Time-series forecasting, Electricity demand, Machine learning, Deep learning

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    20
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
20
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze