
You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.
You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.
<script type="text/javascript">
<!--
document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>');
document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=undefined&type=result"></script>');
-->
</script>
Strategic participation in competitive electricity markets: Internal versus sectorial data analysis

[EN] Current approaches for risk management in energy market participation mostly refer to portfolio optimization for long-term planning, and stochastic approaches to deal with uncertainties related to renewable energy gen- eration and market prices variation. Risk assessment and management as integrated part of actual market ne- gotiation strategies is lacking from the current literature. This paper addresses this gap by proposing a novel model for decision support of players’ strategic participation in electricity market negotiations, which considers risk management as a core component of the decision-making process. The proposed approach addresses the adaptation of players’ behaviour according to the participation risk, by combining the two most commonly used approaches of forecasting in a company’s scope: the internal data analysis, and the external, or sectorial, data analysis. The internal data analysis considers the evaluation of the company’s evolution in terms of market power and profitability, while the sectorial analysis addresses the assessment of the competing entities in the market sector using a K-Means-based clustering approach. By balancing these two components, the proposed model enables a dynamic adaptation to the market context, using as reference the expected prices from com- petitor players, and the market price prediction by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Results under realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian electricity market operator show that the proposed approach is able to outperform most state-of-the-art market participation strategies, reaching a higher accumulated profit, by adapting players’ actions according to the participation risk.
- Universidade Lusófona do Porto Portugal
- University of Salamanca Spain
- Universidade do Porto Portugal
- Universidade Católica Portuguesa Portugal
Artificial neural network, Electricity markets, Sectorial data, Multi-agent simulation, Perfect competition, Risk management, Strategic negotiations, 5308 Economía General
Artificial neural network, Electricity markets, Sectorial data, Multi-agent simulation, Perfect competition, Risk management, Strategic negotiations, 5308 Economía General
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).13 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% visibility views 99 download downloads 58 - 99views58downloads
Data source Views Downloads Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa 99 58


