Abstract Even though renewable energy development has gained momentum in China, thermal power generation still accounts for approximately 70% of the county's total power generation serving as the major source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China. Facing the challenges of meeting 2030 peak target of CO2 emission and realizing the coordinated development of thermal power generation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, this paper applies generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM) to decompose the dynamics in the relevant CO2 emission. The effects of five factors including electricity demand, energy consumption, technology, energy efficiency and energy-mix are considered. The decomposition suggests that electricity demand is the primary factor driving the CO2 emission up, whereas technology effect decreases CO2 emission the most. Given the significant roles of technology, energy-mix and energy efficiency in CO2 emissions reduction, seven scenarios are designed to identify the optimal coordinated development pathway for thermal power generation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Through upgrading energy structure and/or enhancing energy efficiency, the thermal power generation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can achieve coordinated development and realize the 2030 peak target under four scenarios. The detailed development pathways for CO2 emissions and specific policy implications for Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are provided to further govern CO2 emissions and maintain sustainable development.