Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Archivio istituziona...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
Journal of Hydrology
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
UCrea
Article . 2025
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: UCrea
versions View all 3 versions
addClaim

This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.

You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.

Energy balance modelling of snow and ice melt for the Naltar catchment (Karakoram, Pakistan) in future climate

Authors: Liaqat, Muhammad Usman; Casanueva, Ana; Ansari, Rubina; Grossi, Giovanna; Ranzi, Roberto;

Energy balance modelling of snow and ice melt for the Naltar catchment (Karakoram, Pakistan) in future climate

Abstract

High Mountain Asia (HMA), including the Hindu Kush-Karakoram Himalayas (HKH) is one of the world's key "water towers", with the resources supporting hundreds of millions of people. Currently, this region is experi encing significant demographic and socio-economic growth. Reliable hydrological projections of the future supply of water resources are essential, given the likelihood that water resources demand will continue to in crease. In this study, CORDEX South Asia (CORDEX-WAS44) regional climate models (RCMs) and the Physically Based Distributed Snow Land and Ice Model, that was calibrated with hourly meteorological data and daily runoff over eight years of monitoring period, are employed in the Naltar catchment located in the Hunza river basin, Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan to project glacio-hydrological regimes in the future climate. For each of the CORDEX-WAS44 simulations, climate change signals for near future (2040-2059) and far future (2080-2099) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 are presented with respect to the corresponding present climate (1991-2010). Results show overall significant increases in mean temperature between (+0.9 to + 6.0 ºC, depending upon the scenario) and total precipitation (+6 to + 29 %) from April to September by the end of the century for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The projected simulations of energy and mass balance indicate that snow and ice melt rate will increase consistently in both future periods with an earlier timing of the snowmelt as it appears in June in the near future (2040-2059) and in May in the far future (2080-2099) under the high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The increase in temperature, precipitation and winter snowpack changes are also expected to have a substantial impact on the hydrological regime in the Naltar catchment, with a peak flow occurring one to two months earlier and a total by 2090 and a decrease of total runoff in the monsoon season by -3 to -24 % in the near and far future, respectively, under RCP 8.5 scenario and more neutral changes (-2 to + 3 %) according to RCP 4.5. Based on these results and the discussion above, water availability in the Naltar catchment will be uncertain by the end of the century. The study covers one part of the PhD research work of the first author funded by the University of Brescia, Italy, and the Erasmus (Italy) Traineeship Program. The research was partially funded by the Regione Lombardia and CNR-IRPI grant on debris flow modeling in mountain areas. C.A. acknowledges support from Project COMPOUND (TED2021-131334A-I00) funded by MCIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by the European Union Next Generation EU/PRTR.

Countries
Spain, Italy, Spain
Keywords

Upper indus basin, CORDEX South Asia, Climate Change; CORDEX South Asia; Hydrological Modelling; Karakoram anomaly; Regional Climate Models; Upper Indus Basin, Hydrological modelling, Climate change, Karakoram anomaly, Regional climate models

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid
Related to Research communities
Energy Research