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Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
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A fuzzy-based cascade ensemble model for improving extreme wind speeds prediction

Authors: C. Peláez-Rodríguez; J. Pérez-Aracil; L. Prieto-Godino; S. Ghimire; R.C. Deo; S. Salcedo-Sanz;

A fuzzy-based cascade ensemble model for improving extreme wind speeds prediction

Abstract

A novel fuzzy-based cascade ensemble of regression models is proposed to address a problem of extreme wind speed events forecasting, using data from atmospheric reanalysis models. Although this problem has been mostly explored in the context of classification tasks, the innovation of this paper arises from tackling a continuous predictive domain, aiming at providing an accurate estimation of the extreme wind speed values. The proposed layered framework involves a successive partition of the training data into fuzzy-soft clusters according to the target variable value, and further training a specific regression model within each designated cluster, so that each model can analyze a particular part of the target domain. Finally, predictions made by individual models are integrated into a fuzzy-based ensemble, where a pertinence value is designated to each model based on the previous layer's prediction, and on the defined membership functions for each cluster. A Differential Evolution (DE) optimization algorithm is adopted to find the optimal way to perform data partitioning. Fast training randomized neural networks methods are used as final regression schemes. The performance of the proposed methodology has been assessed by comparison against state-of-the-art methods in real data from three wind farms in Spain.

Country
Australia
Keywords

Wind extremes prediction, 006, Extreme Learning Machine, Wind energy, Wind speed extremes, Fuzzy ensemble

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    11
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    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
11
Average
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid