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Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario

handle: 11250/3174005
Climate change can significantly impact agriculture, leading to food security challenges. Most previous studies have investigated the direct climate impact on crops while neglecting the impact of heat stress on agricultural labor. Here, we assess the economic consequences of climate impacts on four major crops—maize, soybean, wheat, and rice—for scenarios involving low and high greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on the output from a new generation of global climate and crop models to drive a multiregional economic model. We find that, even under a high-emission scenario, the effect of CO$_2$ fertilization could lead to higher yields, resulting in lower prices for major crops, except for maize. However, heat-induced losses in agricultural labor could offset the potential economic benefits of CO$_2$ fertilization in crop production in Asia and Africa. Our findings emphasize the importance of addressing heat-stress impacts on agricultural labor through proactive adaptation measures.
- National Institute for Environmental Studies Japan
- King’s University United States
- Leibniz Association Germany
- Universität Hamburg Germany
- China Agricultural University China (People's Republic of)
heat stress, labor cost, Earth sciences, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, climate change, 550, 330, labor productivity, ddc:550, agricultural labor, crop yields, labor capacity, 630
heat stress, labor cost, Earth sciences, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, climate change, 550, 330, labor productivity, ddc:550, agricultural labor, crop yields, labor capacity, 630
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).4 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
