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What determines future changes in photovoltaic potential over East Asia?

Authors: Changyong Park; Seok-Woo Shin; Gayoung Kim; Dong-Hyun Cha; Seung-Ki Min; Donghyun Lee; Young-Hwa Byun; +1 Authors

What determines future changes in photovoltaic potential over East Asia?

Abstract

Heavily industrialized East Asia, with its high greenhouse gas emissions, must inevitably increase renewable energy production to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Photovoltaics (PV), a widely utilized renewable energy source, is directly affected by the weather and climate. This study conducted the first analysis of current and future PV potential (PVpot) changes over East Asia using the ERA5 reanalysis and multiple high-resolution regional climate model simulations. The recent PVpot over East Asia did not exhibit any notable changes, but the future PVpot of the multi-model ensemble is predicted to decrease by-4.3% (winter) to-1.5% (summer) on average with excellent inter-model agreements. Results demonstrated that the widespread increase in near-surface air temperature causes the overall PVpot decrease (around-2.0%) over East Asia across all seasons. Interestingly, surface down-welling shortwave radiation increases in summer, offsetting temperature-induced PVpot decreases (by about 0.7%) while it declines in winter and spring, intensifying the warming-driven PVpot decrease (by approximately-1.4% to-2.3%). Further, the changes in the number of rainy days are associated with the changing patterns of surface down-welling shortwave radiation, indicating the importance of reliable projections of precipitation. Wind speed exerts a negligible effect on the future PVpot change. (c) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). ; 1 ; 1 ; N ; scie ; scopus

Country
Korea (Republic of)
Keywords

Renewable energy, WEATHER, MODELS, Photovoltaic potential, CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS, 551, Future projection, Coordinated regional downscaling, SOLAR-RADIATION, EXTREMES, Experiment -East Asia, Surface down-welling shortwave radiation, PROJECTIONS, KOREA, SUMMER PRECIPITATION, GENERATION, Regional climate models

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    18
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
18
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
hybrid