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Are we there yet? Improving solar PV economics and power planning in developing countries: The case of Kenya

Despite the rapid decline in the cost of solar photo-voltaic (PV) systems in the past five years, even recent academic research suggests that the cost of generating PV electricity remains too high for PV to make a meaningful contribution to the generation of grid electricity in developing countries. This assessment is reflected in the views of policy-makers throughout Africa, who often consider PV as a technology suited only to remote locations and small-scale applications. This paper therefore analyzes whether, in contrast to conventional wisdom, PV is already competitive with other generation technologies. Analytically, the paper is based on a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model to calculate the cost of PV electricity in Kenya, which serves as a case study. Based on actual technology costs and Kenya’s solar resource, the LCOE from PV is estimated at USD 0.21/kWh for the year 2011, with scenario results ranging from USD 0.17-0.30/kWh. This suggests that the LCOE of grid-connected PV systems may already be below that of the most expensive conventional power plants, i.e. medium-speed diesel generators and gas turbines, which account for a large share of Kenya’s current power mix. This finding implies that researchers and policy-makers may be mistaken in perceiving solar PV as a costly niche technology, rather than a feasible option for the expansion of power generation in developing countries.
- Universität Hamburg Germany
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Austria
- International Institute of Minnesota United States
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) - International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
- International Institute of Minnesota United States
solar photovoltaic electricity, on-grid electricity supply, levelized cost of electricity, developing countries, Africa, 303, jel: jel:C29, jel: jel:O12, jel: jel:Q42, jel: jel:Q48
solar photovoltaic electricity, on-grid electricity supply, levelized cost of electricity, developing countries, Africa, 303, jel: jel:C29, jel: jel:O12, jel: jel:Q42, jel: jel:Q48
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).71 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
