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Verification of deterministic solar forecasts

Authors: Dazhi Yang; Stefano Alessandrini; Javier Antonanzas; Fernando Antonanzas-Torres; Viorel Badescu; Hans Georg Beyer; Robert Blaga; +26 Authors

Verification of deterministic solar forecasts

Abstract

The field of energy forecasting has attracted many researchers from different fields (e.g., meteorology, data sciences, mechanical or electrical engineering) over the last decade. Solar forecasting is a fast-growing sub-domain of energy forecasting. Despite several previous attempts, the methods and measures used for verification of deterministic (also known as single-valued or point) solar forecasts are still far from being standardized, making forecast analysis and comparison difficult. To analyze and compare solar forecasts, the well-established Murphy-Winkler framework for distribution-oriented forecast verification is recommended as a standard practice. This framework examines aspects of forecast quality, such as reliability, resolution, association, or discrimination, and analyzes the joint distribution of forecasts and observations, which contains all time-independent information relevant to verification. To verify forecasts, one can use any graphical display or mathematical/statistical measure to provide insights and summarize the aspects of forecast quality. The majority of graphical methods and accuracy measures known to solar forecasters are specific methods under this general framework. Additionally, measuring the overall skillfulness of forecasters is also of general interest. The use of the root mean square error (RMSE) skill score based on the optimal convex combination of climatology and persistence methods is highly recommended. By standardizing the accuracy measure and reference forecasting method, the RMSE skill score allows-with appropriate caveats-comparison of forecasts made using different models, across different locations and time periods.

Countries
Germany, France, Australia, Germany, Australia, United States, Singapore
Keywords

330, Distribution-oriented forecast verification, [SPI]Engineering Sciences [physics], Engineering, Affordable and Clean Energy, combination of climatology and persistence, Solar forecasting, Combination of climatology and persistence, Measure-oriented forecast verification, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/530, distribution-oriented forecast verification, Energy, Skill score, renewable energy, skill score, measure-oriented forecast verification, Built Environment and Design, [INFO.INFO-IR]Computer Science [cs]/Information Retrieval [cs.IR], [SDE]Environmental Sciences, solar forecasting

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    177
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
    influence
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    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
177
Top 0.1%
Top 10%
Top 0.1%
Green
hybrid