Abstract Under the low-carbon environment of economy and society, the real decoupling between economic growth and high carbon emissions is the basis for realizing the sustainable and low-carbon transformation and development of Shandong Province. This paper uses energy consumption as an intermediate variable, according to EKC hypothesis theory and Tapio decoupling indicator theory, by constructing the multiple regression model and low-carbon decoupling model of carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth, this makes an empirical analysis of the interval elasticity relationship and the point-in-time elasticity relationship in 1994−2017. The decoupling situation is: there is an inverted "N" curve relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Shandong Province. The second theoretical turning point is in 2012, and the decoupling relationship will gradually appear in the future. To a great extent, Shandong Province's low-carbon decoupling indicator is affected by the energy conservation decoupling indicator, and the strong decoupling state of economic growth and carbon emissions has appeared continuously, but it is not stable enough. The ideal decoupling state between economic growth and carbon emission will occur only after carbon emission reaches the peak, so it is necessary to predict the peak year of carbon emission. Based on the scenario analysis and decoupling theory, a carbon emission model is constructed to analyze the carbon emission status and its possible peak years in different scenarios in Shandong Province from 2016 to 2030. On the whole, with the improvement of economic development level, the situation of low energy consumption and low emissions is gradually significant. The degree of decoupling is mainly affected by the macro-economic situation and the change of policy regulation. Therefore, the paper puts forward the scientific, feasible and effective policy measures with Shandong characteristics to promote the sustainable development of low-carbon economy.