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From global to national scenarios: Bridging different models to explore power generation decarbonisation based on insights from socio-technical transition case studies

In this paper, we apply two global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and one detailed European electricity system model to explore the consequences of different narrative-based low-carbon scenarios on the electricity system from the global to national scale. The narratives are based on insights from socio-technical transition analysis on niche-innovations. The main aim of this exercise is to examine the solution space in low-carbon scenarios for electricity supply from the global to national scale, which is largely neglected when focusing on cost-optimal solutions only. We show that taking into account insights from socio-technical transition analysis can have large impacts on the projected transition strategy, especially regarding relatively costly technologies that currently have a high momentum. For instance, we find that the share of offshore wind in electricity generation in Europe is less than 3% or up to 27% by 2050, depending on the underlying narrative. These ranges are useful input for policy-makers, as they show the degree of flexibility in mitigation options. Furthermore, our analysis shows that combining IAMs with more detailed sectoral models illuminates the challenges on a more detailed geographical scale, for instance regarding storage requirements and the need for interconnectivity across European borders.
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Netherlands
- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Italy
- Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change Italy
- Ca Foscari University of Venice Italy
- Central Maine Community College United States
IAM, Multi-level perspective, Scenarios, Management of Technology and Innovation, Taverne, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, Integrated assessment, Socio-technical transitions, Business and International Management, Applied Psychology
IAM, Multi-level perspective, Scenarios, Management of Technology and Innovation, Taverne, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, Integrated assessment, Socio-technical transitions, Business and International Management, Applied Psychology
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).15 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
