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Environmental Science & Technology
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: STM Policy #29
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Integrating Stock-Flow Modeling and Energy System Optimization to Explore Decarbonization Pathways for China’s Cement Industry

Authors: Jingyang Song; Xiaoke Su; Lijing Hou; Chunli Chu; Tongyuan Wu; Hancheng Dai; Yang Ou; +3 Authors

Integrating Stock-Flow Modeling and Energy System Optimization to Explore Decarbonization Pathways for China’s Cement Industry

Abstract

In the global effort to mitigate climate change, the cement sector remains highly emission-intensive and hard-to-decarbonize. Previous research has highlighted material efficiency strategies─including more intensive use, lifetime extension, material-efficient design, and end-of-life processes, as demand-side options for reducing emissions. However, unintended effects and supply side responses, such as shifts in technological portfolios and investment trends, remain underexplored. This study develops a framework that couples detailed stock-flow modeling and a bottom-up energy system optimization model, a subcategory of integrated assessment models. Taking China's cement sector as a pilot case, our framework projects comprehensive decarbonization pathways for cement-based materials. The results show that material efficiency strategies could reduce cement demand by 57%, significantly decreasing reliance on supply side technologies required for net-zero emissions, with these strategies contributing nearly 50% of the cumulative decarbonization effort. The material efficiency strategies also reduce the incremental total production costs associated with low-carbon technologies in upstream sectors. When combined with CO2 uptake from cement-based materials, this study offers a cost-effective pathway for achieving net-zero emissions in the cement sector, lowering both costs and CO2 emissions without heavy dependence on carbon capture and storage.

Keywords

China, Construction Materials, Climate Change, Models, Theoretical, Carbon Dioxide

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