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Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

Authors: Roberts, Malcolm John; Camp, Joanne; Seddon, Jon; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Hodges, Kevin; Vannière, Benoît; Mecking, Jenny; +22 Authors

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

Abstract

AbstractFuture changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

Countries
Spain, United Kingdom, United Kingdom, France, United States, Spain
Keywords

future change, 550, tracking algorithms, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, Future change, 551, Oceanography, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate models, Tracking algorithms, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Climate change, tropical cyclones, High resolution, Ciclons, CMIP6, :Desenvolupament humà i sostenible [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible, high resolution, QC801-809, model bias, Research Letters, Climate Action, Tropical cyclones, Earth Sciences, engineering & technology, Cyclones--Tropics, Simulacio per ordinador, Modeling and simulation in science, Modeling and simulation in science, engineering & technology, Model bias

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
downloads
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148
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53
49
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