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Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

AbstractFuture changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.
- Pennsylvania State University United States
- University of California System United States
- Max Planck Institute of Neurobiology Germany
- National Oceanography Centre United Kingdom
- UNIVERSITE DE TOULOUSE 2 France
future change, 550, tracking algorithms, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, Future change, 551, Oceanography, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate models, Tracking algorithms, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Climate change, tropical cyclones, High resolution, Ciclons, CMIP6, :Desenvolupament humà i sostenible [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible, high resolution, QC801-809, model bias, Research Letters, Climate Action, Tropical cyclones, Earth Sciences, engineering & technology, Cyclones--Tropics, Simulacio per ordinador, Modeling and simulation in science, Modeling and simulation in science, engineering & technology, Model bias
future change, 550, tracking algorithms, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, Future change, 551, Oceanography, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate models, Tracking algorithms, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Climate change, tropical cyclones, High resolution, Ciclons, CMIP6, :Desenvolupament humà i sostenible [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible, high resolution, QC801-809, model bias, Research Letters, Climate Action, Tropical cyclones, Earth Sciences, engineering & technology, Cyclones--Tropics, Simulacio per ordinador, Modeling and simulation in science, Modeling and simulation in science, engineering & technology, Model bias
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).148 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% visibility views 53 download downloads 49 - 53views49downloads
Data source Views Downloads UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC 53 49


