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Geophysical Research Letters
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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Geophysical Research Letters
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The Shifting Scales of Western U.S. Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Under Climate Change

Authors: Yang Zhou; Paul A. Ullrich; Paul A. Ullrich; Michael Wehner; Huanping Huang; Andrew D. Jones; Travis A. O'Brien; +5 Authors

The Shifting Scales of Western U.S. Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Under Climate Change

Abstract

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) can be a boon and bane to water resource managers as they have the ability to replenish water reserves, but they can also generate million‐to‐billion‐dollar flood damages. To investigate how anthropogenic climate change may influence AR characteristics in the coastal western United States by end century, we employ a suite of novel tools such as variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM), the TempestExtremes AR detection algorithm, and the Ralph, Rutz, et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS‐D‐18‐0023.1) AR category scale. We show that end‐century ARs primarily shift from being “mostly or primarily beneficial” to “mostly or primarily hazardous” with a concomitant sharpening and intensification of winter season precipitation totals. Changes in precipitation totals are due to a significant increase in AR (+260%) rather than non‐AR (+7%) precipitation, largely through increases in the most intense category of AR events and a decrease in the interval between landfalling ARs.

Country
United States
Keywords

550, atmospheric rivers, CESD-Adaptive Water Management, extremes, extremes</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, water resources, 551, 333, water resources</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, hydroclimate, Atmospheric Sciences, western United States</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, hydroclimate</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, Climate Action, climate change, atmospheric rivers</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, Earth Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, climate change</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, western United States

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    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
52
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green
gold