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The Shifting Scales of Western U.S. Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Under Climate Change

doi: 10.1029/2020gl089096
AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) can be a boon and bane to water resource managers as they have the ability to replenish water reserves, but they can also generate million‐to‐billion‐dollar flood damages. To investigate how anthropogenic climate change may influence AR characteristics in the coastal western United States by end century, we employ a suite of novel tools such as variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM), the TempestExtremes AR detection algorithm, and the Ralph, Rutz, et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS‐D‐18‐0023.1) AR category scale. We show that end‐century ARs primarily shift from being “mostly or primarily beneficial” to “mostly or primarily hazardous” with a concomitant sharpening and intensification of winter season precipitation totals. Changes in precipitation totals are due to a significant increase in AR (+260%) rather than non‐AR (+7%) precipitation, largely through increases in the most intense category of AR events and a decrease in the interval between landfalling ARs.
- University of Science and Technology Yemen
- DePaul University United States
- University of California System United States
- Iowa State University United States
- University of Science and Technology Yemen
550, atmospheric rivers, CESD-Adaptive Water Management, extremes, extremes</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, water resources, 551, 333, water resources</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, hydroclimate, Atmospheric Sciences, western United States</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, hydroclimate</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, Climate Action, climate change, atmospheric rivers</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, Earth Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, climate change</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, western United States
550, atmospheric rivers, CESD-Adaptive Water Management, extremes, extremes</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, water resources, 551, 333, water resources</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, hydroclimate, Atmospheric Sciences, western United States</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, hydroclimate</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, Climate Action, climate change, atmospheric rivers</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, Earth Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, climate change</AUTHOR_KEYWORD>, western United States
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