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Earth's Future
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Crossref
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Earth's Future
Article . 2024
Data sources: DOAJ
https://doi.org/10.22541/essoa...
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Key Uncertainties and Modeling Needs for Managing Living Marine Resources in the Future Arctic Ocean

Authors: Julia G. Mason; Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz; Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes; Renuka Badhe; Isabella Morgante; Daniele Bianchi; Julia L. Blanchard; +5 Authors

Key Uncertainties and Modeling Needs for Managing Living Marine Resources in the Future Arctic Ocean

Abstract

AbstractEmerging fishing activity due to melting ice and poleward species distribution shifts in the rapidly‐warming Arctic Ocean challenges transboundary management and requires proactive governance. A 2021 moratorium on commercial fishing in the Arctic high seas provides a 16‐year runway for improved scientific understanding. Given substantial knowledge gaps, characterizing areas of highest uncertainty is a key first step. Marine ecosystem model ensembles that project future fish distributions could inform management of future Arctic fisheries, but Arctic‐specific variation has not yet been examined for global ensembles. We use the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Intercomparison Project ensemble driven by two Earth System Models (ESMs) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) to illustrate the current state of and uncertainty among biomass projections for the Arctic Ocean over the duration of the moratorium. The models generally project biomass increases in more northern Arctic ecosystems and decreases in southern ecosystems, but wide intra‐model variation exceeds projection means in most cases. The two ESMs show opposite trends for the main environmental drivers. Therefore, these projections are currently insufficient to inform policy actions. Investment in sustained monitoring and improving modeling capacity, especially for sea ice dynamics, is urgently needed. Concurrently, it will be necessary to develop frameworks for making precautionary decisions under continued uncertainty. We conclude that researchers should be transparent about uncertainty, presenting these model projections not as a source of scientific “answers,” but as bounding for plausible, policy‐relevant questions to assess trade‐offs and mitigate risks.

Country
Australia
Keywords

570, Ecology, Climate change science, structural uncertainty, Central Arctic Ocean, FishMIP, Oceanography, 551, Environmental sciences, climate change, fisheries, Fisheries sciences, marine ecosystem models, GE1-350, Biological oceanography, Hydrology, QH540-549.5

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold