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Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble

AbstractTaking advantage of a large ensemble of Convection Permitting‐Regional Climate Models on a pan‐Alpine domain and of an object‐oriented dedicated analysis, this study aims to investigate future changes in high‐impact fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high warming levels. We identify a robust multi‐model agreement for an increased frequency from central Italy to the northern Balkans combined with a substantial extension of the affected areas, for a dominant influence of the driving Global Climate Models for projecting changes in the frequency, and for an increase in intensity, area, volume and severity over the French Mediterranean. However, large quantitative uncertainties persist despite the use of convection‐permitting models, with no clear agreement in frequency changes over southeastern France and a large range of plausible changes in events' properties, including for the most intense events. Model diversity and international coordination are still needed to provide policy‐relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes.
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Germany
- Paris 13 University France
- German Meteorological Service Germany
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute Norway
- Sorbonne Paris Cité France
convection-permitting regional climate model, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, [SDU.STU.ME] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events, object-oriented, 550, ddc:550, QC801-809, object‐oriented, Extremes, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, convection-permitting regional climate model; heavy precipitation events; mediterranean; climate change; object-oriented; tracking, mediterranean, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, tracking, Earth sciences, convection‐permitting regional climate model, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, climate change, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, heavy precipitation events, 550 Earth sciences & geology
convection-permitting regional climate model, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, [SDU.STU.ME] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events, object-oriented, 550, ddc:550, QC801-809, object‐oriented, Extremes, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, convection-permitting regional climate model; heavy precipitation events; mediterranean; climate change; object-oriented; tracking, mediterranean, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, tracking, Earth sciences, convection‐permitting regional climate model, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, climate change, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, heavy precipitation events, 550 Earth sciences & geology
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).2 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
