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Earth's Future
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Earth's Future
Article . 2025
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Assessing the Time of Emergence of Marine Ecosystems From Global to Local Scales Using IPSL‐CM6A‐LR/APECOSM Climate‐To‐Fish Ensemble Simulations

Authors: Nicolas Barrier; Olivier Maury; Roland Seferian; Yeray Santana‐Falcón; Alex Tidd; Matthieu Lengaigne;

Assessing the Time of Emergence of Marine Ecosystems From Global to Local Scales Using IPSL‐CM6A‐LR/APECOSM Climate‐To‐Fish Ensemble Simulations

Abstract

AbstractClimate change is anticipated to considerably reduce global marine fish biomass, driving marine ecosystems into unprecedented states with no historical analogs. The Time of Emergence (ToE) marks the pivotal moment when climate conditions (i.e., signal) deviate from pre‐industrial norms (i.e., noise). Leveraging ensemble climate‐to‐fish simulations from one Earth System Model (IPSL‐CM6A‐LR) and one Marine Ecosystem Model (APECOSM), this study examines the ToE of epipelagic, migratory and mesopelagic fish biomass alongside their main environmental drivers for two contrasted climate‐change scenarios. Globally averaged biomass signals emerge over the historical period. Epipelagic biomass decline emerged earlier (1950) than mesozooplankton decline (2017) due to a stronger signal in the early 20th century, possibly related to trophic amplification induced by an early emerging surface warming (1915). Trophic amplification is delayed for mesopelagic biomass due to postponed warming in the mesopelagic zone, resulting in a later emergence (2017). ToE also displays strong size class dependence, with epipelagic medium sizes (20 cm) experiencing delayed emergence compared to the largest (1 m) and smallest (1 cm) categories. For the epipelagic and mesopelagic communities, the regional signal emergence lags behind the global average, with median ToE estimates of 2030 and 2034, respectively. This is due to stronger noise in regional time‐series than in global averages. The regional ToEs are also spatially heterogeneous, driven predominantly by the signal pattern akin to mesozooplankton. Additionally, our findings underscore that mitigation efforts (i.e., transitioning from SSP5‐8.5 to SSP1‐2.6 scenario) can potentially curtail emerging ocean surface signals by 30%.

Country
France
Keywords

Environmental sciences, climate change, ecosystem modeling, marine ecosystem, Ecology, time of emergence, GE1-350, ensemble modeling, QH540-549.5

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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