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How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

doi: 10.1029/2024gl108160
AbstractAlthough the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.
- The University of Texas System United States
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory United States
- University of Science and Technology Yemen
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory United States
- University of California System United States
550, QC801-809, Climate Change, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Action, Earth Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Climate-Related Exposures and Conditions
550, QC801-809, Climate Change, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Action, Earth Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Climate-Related Exposures and Conditions
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