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How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Authors: Xue Liu; Ramalingam Saravanan; Dan Fu; Ping Chang; Christina M. Patricola; Travis A. O’Brien;

How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Abstract

AbstractAlthough the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

Country
United States
Keywords

550, QC801-809, Climate Change, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Action, Earth Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Climate-Related Exposures and Conditions

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold