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Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.
- Eni (Italy) Italy
- Leibniz Association Germany
- Utrecht University Netherlands
- Polytechnic University of Milan Italy
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Austria
Socioeconomic scenarios, 550, Energy modelling, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Energy and society, Taverne, Climate-change mitigation, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Socioeconomic scenarios, 550, Energy modelling, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Energy and society, Taverne, Climate-change mitigation, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).877 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 0.01% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 1% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 0.01%
