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Rapid shifts in grassland communities driven by climate change

Many terrestrial plant communities, especially forests, have been shown to lag in response to rapid climate change. Grassland communities may respond more quickly to novel climates, as they consist mostly of short-lived species, which are directly exposed to macroclimate change. Here we report the rapid response of grassland communities to climate change in the California Floristic Province. We estimated 349 vascular plant species' climatic niches from 829,337 occurrence records, compiled 15 long-term community composition datasets from 12 observational studies and 3 global change experiments, and analysed community compositional shifts in the climate niche space. We show that communities experienced significant shifts towards species associated with warmer and drier locations at rates of 0.0216 ± 0.00592 °C yr-1 (mean ± s.e.) and -3.04 ± 0.742 mm yr-1, and these changes occurred at a pace similar to that of climate warming and drying. These directional shifts were consistent across observations and experiments. Our findings contrast with the lagged responses observed in communities dominated by long-lived plants and suggest greater biodiversity changes than expected in the near future.
- University of Mary United States
- University of Oregon United States
- University of Western Australia Australia
- University of California, Santa Cruz United States
- University of California System United States
580, Environmental management, Ecology, Climate Change, 577, Evolutionary biology, Biodiversity, Biological Sciences, Plants, Grassland, Article, California, Climate Action, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, Environmental Sciences
580, Environmental management, Ecology, Climate Change, 577, Evolutionary biology, Biodiversity, Biological Sciences, Plants, Grassland, Article, California, Climate Action, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, Environmental Sciences
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).3 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
