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Novel multimodel ensemble approach to evaluate the sole effect of elevated CO2 on winter wheat productivity

نهج جديد متعدد النماذج لتقييم التأثير الوحيد لارتفاع ثاني أكسيد الكربون على إنتاجية القمح في فصل الشتاء
Authors: Mukhtar Ahmed; Claudio O. Stöckle; Roger Nelson; Stewart S. Higgins; Shakeel Ahmad; Muhammad Ali Raza;

Novel multimodel ensemble approach to evaluate the sole effect of elevated CO2 on winter wheat productivity

Abstract

AbstractElevated carbon-dioxide concentration [eCO2] is a key climate change factor affecting plant growth and yield. Conventionally, crop modeling work has evaluated the effect of climatic parameters on crop growth, without considering CO2. It is conjectured that a novel multimodal ensemble approach may improve the accuracy of modelled responses to eCO2. To demonstrate the applicability of a multimodel ensemble of crop models to simulation of eCO2, APSIM, CropSyst, DSSAT, EPIC and STICS were calibrated to observed data for crop phenology, biomass and yield. Significant variability in simulated biomass production was shown among the models particularly at dryland sites (44%) compared to the irrigated site (22%). Increased yield was observed for all models with the highest average yield at dryland site by EPIC (49%) and lowest under irrigated conditions (17%) by APSIM and CropSyst. For the ensemble, maximum yield was 45% for the dryland site and a minimum 22% at the irrigated site. We concluded from our study that process-based crop models have variability in the simulation of crop response to [eCO2] with greater difference under water-stressed conditions. We recommend the use of ensembles to improve accuracy in modeled responses to [eCO2].

Keywords

Impacts of Elevated CO2 and Ozone on Plant Physiology, Biomass (ecology), Atmospheric Science, Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture, Economics, Macroeconomics, Plant Science, Yield (engineering), Precipitation, Crop, Article, Emission Modeling, Environmental science, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Meteorology, Atmospheric Aerosols and their Impacts, Climate change, Crop yield, Plant Growth, Biology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Productivity, Ecology, Geography, Life Sciences, Agronomy, Materials science, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Literature, FOS: Biological sciences, Physical Sciences, Metallurgy, Crop Yield, EPIC, DSSAT, Art, CO2 Enrichment

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    51
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
51
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold