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Comprehensive assessment, review, and comparison of AI models for solar irradiance prediction based on different time/estimation intervals

pmid: 35688900
pmc: PMC9187635
AbstractSolar energy-based technologies have developed rapidly in recent years, however, the inability to appropriately estimate solar energy resources is still a major drawback for these technologies. In this study, eight different artificial intelligence (AI) models namely; convolutional neural network (CNN), artificial neural network (ANN), long short-term memory recurrent model (LSTM), eXtreme gradient boost algorithm (XG Boost), multiple linear regression (MLR), polynomial regression (PLR), decision tree regression (DTR), and random forest regression (RFR) are designed and compared for solar irradiance prediction. Additionally, two hybrid deep neural network models (ANN-CNN and CNN-LSTM-ANN) are developed in this study for the same task. This study is novel as each of the AI models developed was used to estimate solar irradiance considering different timesteps (hourly, every minute, and daily average). Also, different solar irradiance datasets (from six countries in Africa) measured with various instruments were used to train/test the AI models. With the aim to check if there is a universal AI model for solar irradiance estimation in developing countries, the results of this study show that various AI models are suitable for different solar irradiance estimation tasks. However, XG boost has a consistently high performance for all the case studies and is the best model for 10 of the 13 case studies considered in this paper. The result of this study also shows that the prediction of hourly solar irradiance is more accurate for the models when compared to daily average and minutes timestep. The specific performance of each model for all the case studies is explicated in the paper.
- Carlos III University of Madrid Spain
- Chengdu University of Technology China (People's Republic of)
- IMDEA Networks Spain
- University of Electronic Science and Technology of China China (People's Republic of)
- Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology China (People's Republic of)
Telecomunicaciones, Time Factors, Matemáticas, Science, Energy science and technology, Q, R, Estadística, Article, Environmental sciences, Engineering, Artificial Intelligence, Solar Energy, Sunlight, Medicine, Neural Networks, Computer, Algorithms
Telecomunicaciones, Time Factors, Matemáticas, Science, Energy science and technology, Q, R, Estadística, Article, Environmental sciences, Engineering, Artificial Intelligence, Solar Energy, Sunlight, Medicine, Neural Networks, Computer, Algorithms
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).28 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% visibility views 17 download downloads 14 - 17views14downloads
Data source Views Downloads Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid 17 14


