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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

Authors: David A. Carozza; Steve Mackinson; Jeroen Steenbeek; Villy Christensen; Philippe Verley; Susa Niiranen; Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz; +34 Authors

Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

Abstract

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Countries
Spain, France, United Kingdom, France, Australia, France, Germany, France, France, Australia, United States, Spain, France
Keywords

Aquatic Organisms, [SDV.BID.SPT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, 550, 551, [SDV.BID.SPT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy, Theoretical, Models, global ecosystem modeling, [SDV.EE.ECO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Intercomparison, Biomass, uncertainty, Marine food webs, marine food webs, climate change impacts, Uncertainty, Fishes, Phylogenetics and taxonomy, [SDV.BV.BOT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Botanics, Biological Sciences, global, climate change, model intercomparison, environment/Ecosystems, ensemble models, 570, Food Chain, Climate Change, Oceans and Seas, Fisheries, 333, Climate change impacts, [SDV.BV.BOT] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Botanics, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, [SDV.BID.SPT] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy, Animals, fish, Models, Theoretical, Environmental Management, Climate Action, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, trophic cascades, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, Model intercomparison, Global ecosystem modeling, Environmental Sciences, Model

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
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387
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