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Greenhouse gas observation network design for Africa

An optimal network design was carried out to prioritise the installation or refurbishment of greenhouse gas (GHG) monitoring stations around Africa. The network was optimised to reduce the uncertainty in emissions across three of the most important GHGs: CO2, CH4, and N2O. Optimal networks were derived using incremental optimisation of the percentage uncertainty reduction achieved by a Gaussian Bayesian atmospheric inversion. The solution for CO2 was driven by seasonality in net primary productivity. The solution for N2O was driven by activity in a small number of soil flux hotspots. The optimal solution for CH4 was consistent over different seasons. All solutions for CO2 and N2O placed sites in central Africa at places such as Kisangani, Kinshasa and Bunia (Democratic Republic of Congo), Dundo and Lubango (Angola), Zoétélé (Cameroon), Am Timan (Chad), and En Nahud (Sudan). Many of these sites appeared in the CH4 solutions, but with a few sites in southern Africa as well, such as Amersfoort (South Africa). The multi-species optimal network design solutions tended to have sites more evenly spread-out, but concentrated the placement of new tall-tower stations in Africa between 10ºN and 25ºS. The uncertainty reduction achieved by the multi-species network of twelve stations reached 47.8% for CO2, 34.3% for CH4, and 32.5% for N2O. The gains in uncertainty reduction diminished as stations were added to the solution, with an expected maximum of less than 60%. A reduction in the absolute uncertainty in African GHG emissions requires these additional measurement stations, as well as additional constraint from an integrated GHG observatory and a reduction in uncertainty in the prior biogenic fluxes in tropical Africa. This work was funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 730995 and by Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Methane Observations and Yearly Assessments programme (MOYA, NE/N016548/1). ALB was supported by a Juan de la Cierva-Formaci?n postdoctoral contract from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (FJC2018-038192-I). The authors would like to thank Alistair Manning for useful tea-time discussions on biomass burning emissions.
- University of Bristol United Kingdom
- Trinity College Dublin Ireland
- Lund University Sweden
- University of the Witwatersrand South Africa
- Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management Namibia
550, Bayesian analysis, network design, Bayesian inversion, 630, Meteorology. Climatology, greenhouse gases, Lagrangian analysis, bayesian inversion, network analysis, uncertainty analysis, lagrangian particle dispersion model, observation network design, greenhouse gas, Africa, Lagrangian particle dispersion model, QC851-999, numerical model
550, Bayesian analysis, network design, Bayesian inversion, 630, Meteorology. Climatology, greenhouse gases, Lagrangian analysis, bayesian inversion, network analysis, uncertainty analysis, lagrangian particle dispersion model, observation network design, greenhouse gas, Africa, Lagrangian particle dispersion model, QC851-999, numerical model
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