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Carbon Management
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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Carbon Management
Article . 2018
Data sources: DOAJ
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Carbon pricing prediction based on wavelet transform and K-ELM optimized by bat optimization algorithm in China ETS: the case of Shanghai and Hubei carbon markets

Authors: Sun Cuiping; Sun Wei; Zhang Chongchong;

Carbon pricing prediction based on wavelet transform and K-ELM optimized by bat optimization algorithm in China ETS: the case of Shanghai and Hubei carbon markets

Abstract

Carbon pricing is regarded as a crucial enabler for an accelerated low-carbon energy economy transformation to achieve temperature control targets. This paper studies carbon price forecasting considering historical carbon price series as an influencing factor. A hybrid model of a kernel-based extreme learning machine (KELM) optimized by the bat optimization algorithm based on wavelet transform is proposed. Firstly, the wavelet transform is used to eliminate the high-frequency components of the previous day’s carbon price data to improve the accuracy of prediction. Then, the partial auto-correlation function (PACF) is applied to analyse the correlation among historical carbon prices to select the inputs for the forecasting model. Additionally, adding a kernel function improves to some extent the fitting accuracy and stability of the traditional extreme learning machine. Finally, the parameters of the KELM model are optimized by the bat optimization algorithm. Two types of carbon prices in the China ETS were used to examine the forecasting ability of the proposed hybrid methodology. The empirical results show that the proposed hybrid methodology is more robust than other comparison models for carbon price forecasting.

Related Organizations
Keywords

bat algorithm, Environmental sciences, kernel-based extreme learning machine, carbon price forecasting, GE1-350, wavelet transform

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    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
49
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold