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Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

Authors: Keywan Riahi; Keywan Riahi; Joeri Rogelj; Joeri Rogelj; Malte Meinshausen; Malte Meinshausen; Michiel Schaeffer; +3 Authors

Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

Abstract

Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO2. Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO2 emissions.

Countries
Austria, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Switzerland
Keywords

330, 550, Science, QC1-999, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Climate stabilization, climate stabilization, greenhouse gases, global goal, Climate change, GE1-350, Leerstoelgroep Milieusysteemanalyse, Global goal, TD1-1066, Physics, Q, Climate policy; Climate stabilization; UNFCCC; Greenhouse gases; Carbon dioxide; Global goal; Climate change, carbon dioxide, 500, climate policy, Environmental sciences, UNFCCC, Environmental Systems Analysis, Greenhouse gases, climate change, Carbon dioxide, Milieusysteemanalyse, Climate policy

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    269
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 1%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
269
Top 0.1%
Top 1%
Top 1%
Green
gold