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Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO2. Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO2 emissions.
- Wageningen University & Research Netherlands
- University of Melbourne Australia
- University of Zurich Switzerland
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Germany
- Kasetsart University Thailand
330, 550, Science, QC1-999, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Climate stabilization, climate stabilization, greenhouse gases, global goal, Climate change, GE1-350, Leerstoelgroep Milieusysteemanalyse, Global goal, TD1-1066, Physics, Q, Climate policy; Climate stabilization; UNFCCC; Greenhouse gases; Carbon dioxide; Global goal; Climate change, carbon dioxide, 500, climate policy, Environmental sciences, UNFCCC, Environmental Systems Analysis, Greenhouse gases, climate change, Carbon dioxide, Milieusysteemanalyse, Climate policy
330, 550, Science, QC1-999, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Climate stabilization, climate stabilization, greenhouse gases, global goal, Climate change, GE1-350, Leerstoelgroep Milieusysteemanalyse, Global goal, TD1-1066, Physics, Q, Climate policy; Climate stabilization; UNFCCC; Greenhouse gases; Carbon dioxide; Global goal; Climate change, carbon dioxide, 500, climate policy, Environmental sciences, UNFCCC, Environmental Systems Analysis, Greenhouse gases, climate change, Carbon dioxide, Milieusysteemanalyse, Climate policy
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).269 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 0.1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 1% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
