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Environmental Research Letters
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Environmental Research Letters
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Horizon / Pleins textes
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Potential impact of climate change on solar resource in Africa for photovoltaic energy: analyses from CORDEX-AFRICA climate experiments

Authors: Adeline Bichet; Benoit Hingray; Guillaume Evin; Arona Diedhiou; Cheikh Mouhamed Fadel Kebe; Sandrine Anquetin;

Potential impact of climate change on solar resource in Africa for photovoltaic energy: analyses from CORDEX-AFRICA climate experiments

Abstract

Abstract The development of renewable electricity in Africa could be massive in coming decades, as a response to the rapid rising electricity demand while complying with the Paris Agreements. This study shows that in the high-resolution climate experiments of CORDEX-AFRICA, the annual mean solar potential is expected to decrease on average by 4% over most of the continent by the end of the century, reaching up to 6% over the Horn of Africa, as a direct result of decrease in solar radiation and increase in air surface temperature. These projections are associated with large uncertainties, in particular over the Sahel and the elevated terrains of eastern Africa. While the expected decrease may affect the sizing of the numerous solar projects planned in Africa for the next decades, this study suggests that it does not endanger their viability. At last, this study indicates that the design of such projects also needs to account for the non-negligible uncertainties associated with the resource.

Country
France
Keywords

550, 330, Science, QC1-999, solar resource assessment, Precipitation, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, CORDEX-AFRICA, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Internal variability, GE1-350, model projections, solar potential, TD1-1066, solar radiation change, projections, model, Physics, [SPI.NRJ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, Bayesian ANOVA method, Q, BayesianANOVAmethod, Environmental sciences, climate change, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Model uncertainty, [SPI.NRJ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    53
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
53
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%