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Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution

Key indicators and model evolution
Authors: Gokul Iyer; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Bas van Ruijven; Ryna Cui; Volker Krey; Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst; +38 Authors

Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution

Abstract

Abstract Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these models can help describe and explain differences in model projections. This increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler (2015 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 45–61)). Here we build on this, by proposing a selected set of well-defined indicators as a community standard, to systematically and routinely assess IAM behaviour, similar to metrics used for other modeling communities such as climate models. These indicators are the relative abatement index, emission reduction type index, inertia timescale, fossil fuel reduction, transformation index and cost per abatement value. We apply the approach to 17 IAMs, assessing both older as well as their latest versions, as applied in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. The study shows that the approach can be easily applied and used to indentify key differences between models and model versions. Moreover, we demonstrate that this comparison helps to link model behavior to model characteristics and assumptions. We show that together, the set of six indicators can provide useful indication of the main traits of the model and can roughly indicate the general model behavior. The results also show that there is often a considerable spread across the models. Interestingly, the diagnostic values often change for different model versions, but there does not seem to be a distinct trend.

Countries
Netherlands, United Kingdom, United Kingdom, Denmark, France, Germany, Austria, Germany, Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, Denmark, Finland
Keywords

[SDE] Environmental Sciences, 330, 550, Science, QC1-999, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, mitigation, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, SDG 13 - Climate Action, diagnostics, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, AR6, GE1-350, SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, integrated assessment models, TD1-1066, General Environmental Science, Science & Technology, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Physics, Q, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, climate policy, 001, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, 6th Assessment Report IPCC, renewable energy, Environmental sciences, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Environmental Sciences, ddc: ddc:333

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