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Environmental Research Communications
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Urban building energy models: how can we improve the treatment of uncertainty for energy policy decision-making?

Authors: Pamela J Fennell; Shima Ebrahimigharehbaghi; Érika Mata; Georgios Kokogiannakis; Shyam Amrith; Sotiria Ignatiadou; Samuele Lo Piamo;

Urban building energy models: how can we improve the treatment of uncertainty for energy policy decision-making?

Abstract

Abstract Urban Building Energy Models (UBEMs) are emerging as a powerful tool for cities and regions seeking to make decisions on the best pathways for increasing the energy efficiency of their buildings. As model results are used to inform critical policy decisions, it is essential to understand and communicate the limits of inference of model results and how sensitive they are to changes in inputs. In the absence of standard datasets and protocols for model validation, Uncertainty Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis (UASA) procedures offer vital insights. However, there is no consensus on how UASA should be applied to bottom-up building physics-based UBEMs, nor on how different use cases might influence the choice of UASA approach. This study uses a systematic review of the literature (2009–2023) to explore the procedures which are applied and assess their appropriateness. We find a need for a more holistic view of uncertainty to be taken, and present a decision framework for selecting the most appropriate form of quantitative sensitivity analysis, based on model form, data provenance and use case. We also propose a number of approaches to improve the application of sensitivity analysis in UBEM studies, including the importance of undertaking a complementary assessment of information quality.

Keywords

building energy demand, UBEM, building stock, Environmental sciences, urban building energy models, sensitivity analysis, Meteorology. Climatology, GE1-350, QC851-999, uncertainty analysis

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold