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Environmental Research: Energy
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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ZENODO
Preprint . 2024
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Environmental Research: Energy
Article . 2024
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Measuring exploration: evaluation of modelling to generate alternatives methods in capacity expansion models

Authors: Lau, Michael; Patankar, Neha; Jenkins, Jesse;

Measuring exploration: evaluation of modelling to generate alternatives methods in capacity expansion models

Abstract

Abstract As decarbonisation agendas mature, macro-energy systems modelling studies have increasingly focused on enhanced decision support methods that move beyond least-cost modelling to improve consideration of additional objectives and tradeoffs. One candidate is modelling to generate alternatives (MGA), which systematically explores new objectives without explicit stakeholder elicitation. This paper provides comparative testing of four existing MGA methodologies and proposes a new Combination vector selection approach. We examine each existing method’s runtime, parallelizability, new solution discovery efficiency, and spatial exploration in lower dimensional (N ⩽ 100) spaces, as well as spatial exploration for all methods in a three-zone, 8760 h capacity expansion model case. To measure convex hull volume expansion, this paper formalizes a computationally tractable high-dimensional volume estimation algorithm. We find random vector provides the broadest exploration of the near-optimal feasible region and variable Min/Max provides the most extreme results, while the two tie on computational speed. The new Combination method provides an advantageous mix of the two. Additional analysis is provided on MGA variable selection, in which we demonstrate MGA problems formulated over generation variables fail to retain cost-optimal dispatch and are thus not reflective of real operations of equivalent hypothetical capacity choices. As such, we recommend future studies utilize a parallelized combined vector approach over the set of capacity variables for best results in computational speed and spatial exploration while retaining optimal dispatch.

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Keywords

multi-objective optimization, comparative evaluation, TJ807-830, Modelling to Generate Alternatives, HD9502-9502.5, modelling to generate alternatives, optimization, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, Renewable energy sources, measuring spatial exploration

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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gold
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