Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?
Copyright policy )Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?
Abstract Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of −1.9) and livestock (−5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immedia-tely. The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, where water is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa.
- University of Pretoria South Africa
- Yale University United States
- University of Buea Cameroon
- University of Zimbabwe Zimbabwe
- Agricultural & Applied Economics Association United States
MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS, LAND SURFACE, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, PP, FARM, EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE, HYDROMETEOROLOGY, ELASTICITIES, CLIMATE VARIABLES, LAND USE, RAINFALL, MONSOONS, INPUT PRICES, FARM INCOME, LIVESTOCK GRAZING, FARM SIZE, CARBON DIOXIDE LEVELS, CLIMATE SCENARIO, FARM ACTIVITIES, WARMER TEMPERATURES, CROP SIMULATION, FARM DATA, AGRICULTURAL TRADE, CROPLAND, LABOR COSTS, LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURES, FARMERS, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, 330, CROP DEVELOPMENT, APPLIED METEOROLOGY, ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, CLIMATE PREDICTION, CLIMATE MODELS, MEAN TEMPERATURE, INCOMES, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, LAND PRODUCTIVITY, CLIMATES, HYDROLOGY, CALCULATION, FARMS, WAGES, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS, GLOBAL WARMING, PROPERTY RIGHTS, FOOD SUPPLY, EMPIRICAL STUDIES, LIVESTOCK LOSSES, HIGH TEMPERATURES, TEMPERATE CLIMATES, WINTER TEMPERATURE, AGRICULTURAL POLICIES, CLIMATE SCENARIOS, SOCIAL COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CROP, GLOBAL CLIMATE, WELFARE EFFECTS, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL FACILITY, ENVIRONMENTAL, SUMMER TEMPERATURE, SCIENTISTS, EQUILIBRIUM, CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, PRICE CHANGES, CROP PRODUCTION, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, HUNGER, CLIMATE DATA, GREENHOUSE, HYDROLOGICAL DATA, HYDROLOGICAL MODEL, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE, AGRICULTURE, CLIMATIC CHANGE, PUBLIC GOOD, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREME EVENT, MARKET PRICES, SEASON, DEGREE DAYS, AGRICULTURAL CROPS, ELECTRICITY, 630, CARBON FERTILIZATION, IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE, CARBON, ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, LAND ECONOMICS, TEMPERATE CLIMATE, PESTICIDES, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, WAGE RATES, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, CARBON DIOXIDE, CLIMATE IMPACTS, TEMPERATURE, CLIMATE CONDITIONS, GLOBAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, TEMPERATURE EFFECTS, FOOD SECURITY, CLOUDS, CROP FARM, LIVESTOCK FARMERS, LAND FOR LIVESTOCK, ECONOMIC IMPACT, PRECIPITATION, EQUIPMENT, PRIVATE SECTOR, FARMING, GREENHOUSE DAMAGE, RAINY SEASONS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, NEGATIVE IMPACT, METEOROLOGY, SOCIAL COSTS, LIVESTOCK SECTOR, CROP PRODUCTIVITY, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS, IRRIGATION WATER, FERTILIZER, LABOR MARKETS, CROPS, PESTS, RESILIENCE OF AGRICULTURE, CROP REVENUE, CLIMATE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE RESPONSE, SOILS, CLIMATE, MICROECONOMICS, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE VARIABLE, MEAN RAINFALL, CLIMATE VARIATION, ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS
MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS, LAND SURFACE, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, PP, FARM, EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE, HYDROMETEOROLOGY, ELASTICITIES, CLIMATE VARIABLES, LAND USE, RAINFALL, MONSOONS, INPUT PRICES, FARM INCOME, LIVESTOCK GRAZING, FARM SIZE, CARBON DIOXIDE LEVELS, CLIMATE SCENARIO, FARM ACTIVITIES, WARMER TEMPERATURES, CROP SIMULATION, FARM DATA, AGRICULTURAL TRADE, CROPLAND, LABOR COSTS, LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURES, FARMERS, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, 330, CROP DEVELOPMENT, APPLIED METEOROLOGY, ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, CLIMATE PREDICTION, CLIMATE MODELS, MEAN TEMPERATURE, INCOMES, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, LAND PRODUCTIVITY, CLIMATES, HYDROLOGY, CALCULATION, FARMS, WAGES, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS, GLOBAL WARMING, PROPERTY RIGHTS, FOOD SUPPLY, EMPIRICAL STUDIES, LIVESTOCK LOSSES, HIGH TEMPERATURES, TEMPERATE CLIMATES, WINTER TEMPERATURE, AGRICULTURAL POLICIES, CLIMATE SCENARIOS, SOCIAL COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CROP, GLOBAL CLIMATE, WELFARE EFFECTS, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL FACILITY, ENVIRONMENTAL, SUMMER TEMPERATURE, SCIENTISTS, EQUILIBRIUM, CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, PRICE CHANGES, CROP PRODUCTION, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, HUNGER, CLIMATE DATA, GREENHOUSE, HYDROLOGICAL DATA, HYDROLOGICAL MODEL, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE, AGRICULTURE, CLIMATIC CHANGE, PUBLIC GOOD, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREME EVENT, MARKET PRICES, SEASON, DEGREE DAYS, AGRICULTURAL CROPS, ELECTRICITY, 630, CARBON FERTILIZATION, IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE, CARBON, ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, LAND ECONOMICS, TEMPERATE CLIMATE, PESTICIDES, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, WAGE RATES, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, CARBON DIOXIDE, CLIMATE IMPACTS, TEMPERATURE, CLIMATE CONDITIONS, GLOBAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, TEMPERATURE EFFECTS, FOOD SECURITY, CLOUDS, CROP FARM, LIVESTOCK FARMERS, LAND FOR LIVESTOCK, ECONOMIC IMPACT, PRECIPITATION, EQUIPMENT, PRIVATE SECTOR, FARMING, GREENHOUSE DAMAGE, RAINY SEASONS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, NEGATIVE IMPACT, METEOROLOGY, SOCIAL COSTS, LIVESTOCK SECTOR, CROP PRODUCTIVITY, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS, IRRIGATION WATER, FERTILIZER, LABOR MARKETS, CROPS, PESTS, RESILIENCE OF AGRICULTURE, CROP REVENUE, CLIMATE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE RESPONSE, SOILS, CLIMATE, MICROECONOMICS, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE VARIABLE, MEAN RAINFALL, CLIMATE VARIATION, ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS
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