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Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988–2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state.
- The Arctic University of Norway Norway
- French Institute for Research in Computer Science and Automation France
- Aarhus University Denmark
- University of Freiburg Germany
- Norwegian Film Institute Norway
Food Chain, Climate Change, Carnivora, Greenland, Population Dynamics, Models, Biological, Birds, Dicrostonyx groenlandicus, Arctic, [ SDV.EE.IEO ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Symbiosis, Animals, predator-prey interaction, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Arctic Regions, Arvicolinae, Reproduction, cyclic population dynamics, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, climate change, [SDV.EE.IEO] Life Sciences/Ecology, environment/Symbiosis, Seasons, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [SDV.EE.IEO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Symbiosis
Food Chain, Climate Change, Carnivora, Greenland, Population Dynamics, Models, Biological, Birds, Dicrostonyx groenlandicus, Arctic, [ SDV.EE.IEO ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Symbiosis, Animals, predator-prey interaction, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Arctic Regions, Arvicolinae, Reproduction, cyclic population dynamics, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, climate change, [SDV.EE.IEO] Life Sciences/Ecology, environment/Symbiosis, Seasons, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [SDV.EE.IEO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Symbiosis
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).97 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% visibility views 1 - 1views
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