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Environmental variability, reliability of information and the timing of migration

Authors: Bauer, Silke; McNamara, John M.; Barta, Zoltan;

Environmental variability, reliability of information and the timing of migration

Abstract

The timing of migration and migratory steps is highly relevant for fitness. Because environmental conditions vary between years, the optimal time for migration varies accordingly. Therefore, migratory animals could clearly benefit from acquiring information as to when it is the best time to migrate in a specific year. Thus, environmental predictability and variability are fundamental characteristics of migration systems but their relationship and consequence for migratory progression has remained unexplored. We develop a simple dynamic model to identify the optimal migration behaviour in environments that differ in predictability, variability and the number of intermediate stop-over sites. Our results indicate that higher predictability along migration routes enables organisms to better time migration when phenology deviates from its long-term average and thus, increases fitness. Information is particularly valuable in highly variable environments and in the final migration-step, i.e. before the destination. Furthermore, we show that a general strategy for obtaining information in relatively uninformative but variable environments is using intermediate stop-over sites that enable migrants to better predict conditions ahead. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the relationship between animal movement and environmental predictability—an important, yet underappreciated factor that strongly influences migratory progression.

Keywords

environmental variability, phenology, climate change, predictability, Animals, Animal Migration, Seasons, uncertainty

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
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27
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3
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