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Interactions between rainfall, deforestation and fires during recent years in the Brazilian Amazonia

pmid: 18267907
pmc: PMC2373892
Understanding the interplay between climate and land-use dynamics is a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change. In this study, we analyse satellite-derived monthly and annual time series of rainfall, fires and deforestation to explicitly quantify the seasonal patterns and relationships between these three variables, with a particular focus on the Amazonian drought of 2005. Our results demonstrate a marked seasonality with one peak per year for all variables analysed, except deforestation. For the annual cycle, we found correlations above 90% with a time lag between variables. Deforestation and fires reach the highest values three and six months, respectively, after the peak of the rainy season. The cumulative number of hot pixels was linearly related to the size of the area deforested annually from 1998 to 2004 (r2=0.84,p=0.004). During the 2005 drought, the number of hot pixels increased 43% in relation to the expected value for a similar deforested area (approx. 19 000 km2). We demonstrated that anthropogenic forcing, such as land-use change, is decisive in determining the seasonality and annual patterns of fire occurrence. Moreover, droughts can significantly increase the number of fires in the region even with decreased deforestation rates. We may expect that the ongoing deforestation, currently based on slash and burn procedures, and the use of fires for land management in Amazonia will intensify the impact of droughts associated with natural climate variability or human-induced climate change and, therefore, a large area of forest edge will be under increased risk of fires.
- National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment France
- Université Libre de Bruxelles Belgium
- National Institute for Space Research Brazil
- University of Oxford United Kingdom
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration United States
Greenhouse Effect, Conservation of Natural Resources, Time Factors, 550, Rain, drought, 910, Environment, 333, Fires, Trees, Amazonia, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, Climate change, deforestation, Deforestation, Ecosystem, Drought, land use, Sciences bio-médicales et agricoles, Fire, [SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, climate change, Latin America, Land use, environment, Biologie, fire, Brazil, Research Article
Greenhouse Effect, Conservation of Natural Resources, Time Factors, 550, Rain, drought, 910, Environment, 333, Fires, Trees, Amazonia, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, Climate change, deforestation, Deforestation, Ecosystem, Drought, land use, Sciences bio-médicales et agricoles, Fire, [SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, climate change, Latin America, Land use, environment, Biologie, fire, Brazil, Research Article
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