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A MDP-Based Vulnerability Analysis of Power Networks Considering Network Topology and Transmission Capacity

Authors: Claudia Caro-Ruiz; Ameena Saad Al-Sumaiti; Sergio Rivera; Eduardo Mojica-Nava;

A MDP-Based Vulnerability Analysis of Power Networks Considering Network Topology and Transmission Capacity

Abstract

This paper aims to study the vulnerability of the network to sequential cascading failures attacks where the attack strategy integrates network theory and discounted reward with Markov decision process (MDP) in the target selection process. A control strategy is designed to maximize the attack's long-term expected reward while reducing the attack sequence duration. The attack model identifies the most suitable targets by prediction through a Markov process for predicting the propagation and consequences of the failure. The state transition probabilities through a hidden failure model embedded in an independent edge-dependent network evolution model is estimated. Value iteration algorithms are used to identify targets at every attack stage. Target selection is updated depending on network changes. The results provide an optimal attack strategy based on network congestion with maximum damage, considering congestion as a cascade propagation mechanism. Reward functions based on increasing congestion and immediate power loss are compared. Strategies designed with network congestion as the attack reward function produce more vulnerability of the network to sequential attacks.

Keywords

Cascading failures, complex networks, transmission capacity, TK1-9971, system vulnerability, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, network congestion, Markov decision process

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    11
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
11
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold