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A Multifactorial Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Combined With Periodic and Non-Periodic Features - A Case Study of Qingdao, China

Authors: Huanhe Dong; Ya Gao; Xiangjun Meng; Yong Fang;

A Multifactorial Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Combined With Periodic and Non-Periodic Features - A Case Study of Qingdao, China

Abstract

In this paper, the load time-series measured from 2016 to 2018 in Qingdao is investigated in order to make a prediction more accurately by using an artificial neural network model combined with some regular and irregular features. The results of spectral analysis show that several periodic variations in diurnal, semidiurnal and weekly frequencies are prominent, and considered as critical parts of predictior variables of the training and test sets in this forecasting model. However, a significant decline of load happens during the national statutory festivals in China, and is more obvious with the longer holidays, which should be taken into account as abnormal conditions. Moreover, both temperatuer and hummity filtered out by mutual information method are also added as two essential weather factors to improve the prediction accuracy, especially in the hot summer. Finally, the comparative results of five different experiments in term of mean absolute percent error show that the forecasting model combined with all periodic and non-periodic factors outperforms the others with one single or a few of factors. This multifactorial model, taking fully account of internal charateristics of load data and external important influences, is proved more suitable to predict the load trend in Qingdao.

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Keywords

mean absolute percent error, periodic and non-periodic factors, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, artificial neural network, Short-term load forcasting, TK1-9971

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
11
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold