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Minimizing market risk by trading hydro-wind portfolio: A complementarity approach
In many regions around the world (e.g. Norway, Canada and Brazil) it has been observed that exist a natural synergism in the seasonal generation profile of hydro and wind power plants, which permits the implementation of trading strategies to take advantage of this peculiarity. This paper proposes a model to analyze hydro-wind complementarity and the portfolio effect on financial profits and risk exposures. The model, which aims at to find the optimal portfolio and the amount of energy volume allocation in contracts, is optimized through Genetic Algorithm technique and uses the CVaR risk measure. It is applied to check the complementarity effect among one hydro and ten wind power plants spread over the Brazilian territory. Results obtained show strong benefit for some wind power producers when associate with hydro producers, since their risk profiles are minimized, constraint by their firm energy certificate level.
- University of São Paulo Brazil
- Universidade de São Paulo Brazil
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).12 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
