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Short-Term Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting Model for Electricity Market Prices

Authors: Joao P. S. Catalao; Vasco M. A. Campos; Miadreza Shafie-khah; Mohamed Lotfi; Gerardo J. Osorio;

Short-Term Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting Model for Electricity Market Prices

Abstract

With the integration of new power production technologies and the growing focus on dispersed production, there has been a paradigm change in the electricity sector, mostly under a renewable and sustainable way. Consequentially, challenges for profitability as well as correct management of the electricity sector have increased its complexity. The use of forecasting tools that allow a real and robust approach makes it possible to improve system operation and thus minimizing costs associated with the activities of the electric sector. Hence, the forecasting approaches have an essential role in all stages of the electricity markets. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic forecasting model (HPFM) was developed for short-term electricity market prices (EMP), combining Wavelet Transform (WT), hybrid particle swarm optimization (DEEPSO), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), together with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The proposed HPFM was tested and validated with real data from the Spanish and Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) markets, considering the next week ahead. The model was validated by comparing the results with previously published results using other methods.

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average