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Probabilistic wind speed forecast for wind power prediction using pseudo ensemble approach

Authors: Yassine Charabi; Sultan Al-Yahyai; Adel Gastli;

Probabilistic wind speed forecast for wind power prediction using pseudo ensemble approach

Abstract

Accurate wind forecast at a wind farm is an essential process in wind energy industry and marketing. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models can be used but they provide wind forecast as a single value for a given time horizon. Therefore, forecasting wind speed as a deterministic value doesn't represent the uncertainty of the wind speed forecast. Ensemble NWP forecast can be used to calculate the probability of occurrence of different wind speeds classes. The main disadvantage of this approach is the extensive computational resources required to run multiple copies of the NWP model. This paper, explores the possibility of using pseudo ensemble method for generating probabilistic wind forecast for wind farm applications. The proposed method utilizes the spatial and temporal neighborhoods of the forecast point to generate forecast dataset and then calculate the required probabilities. A case study using the proposed method is tested and validated using wind data from NWP model and measurements from three ground weather stations in Oman.

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    13
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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Found an issue? Give us feedback
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
13
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average